26 June, 2016
Eastern Australian flood events: a 'significant' rise in frequency, says study
The BOM is getting cautious. They must have learnt from their very cautious junior researcher, Acacia Pepler.
Below they report an increase in floods but say only that it was "possibly" influenced by human-induced climate change. Though Leftist readers will no doubt fail to to notice the "possibly".
But they are right to use "possibly". They start their record from 1860 and a gentle sea-level rise has been going on since then, long before the alleged era of "human-induced climate change". So more coastal flooding could be expected to show up over that long period.
Secondly, why don't we look at the period of alleged human influence, the post WWI era? Let's look from 1950 on. Looking at their graph I can see NO trend in that period. There is one anomalous spike around 1990 but the histogram overall looks pretty square starting in 1950. I haven't got the raw data to do a precise test but by eye there has been NO trend from 1950 on. At most I see a downward trend. How disappointing for them!
And finally, they got a lot of their data, not from official meteorology records but from "newspaper reports". I hope I do not need to say why that is a very shaky data source. Warmists can be amusing!
The academic journal article underlying the report below is "Major coastal flooding in southeastern Australia 1860–2012, associated deaths and weather systems". I note with amusement the second last sentence of the Abstract: "Some of the most extreme events identified occurred in the 19th century and early-to-mid 20th century". So their findings UNDERMINE global warming theory, if anything. Pesky of me to notice that, isn't it? You are not supposed to question the Gods
But this mob are not Gods. Racketeers and confidence men, more like it. And this article is a good example of their "modus operandi". They can't lie too much or they would risk getting caught with their pants down. So they just slant what they put out
The frequency of major flood events along Australia's eastern seaboard is increasing, with climate change one of the possible factors, senior Bureau of Meteorology researchers say.
The report, published in the bureau's inaugural edition of the Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science, comes as eastern Australia braces for the second east coast low in as many weeks, with the potential for localised flooding including in the Sydney region.
Researchers, such as Acacia Pepler from the University of NSW, predict east coast lows may become less common during the winter months as the planet warms. However, those that form near the coast, which bring the most damage from heavy rain and coastal erosion, may increase in frequency.
The new research from Scott Power and Jeff Callaghan indicates that major flood events are already on the increase.
Taking a 1500-kilometre stretch of eastern Australia from Brisbane down to Bega on the south coast of NSW, the two bureau researchers examined all the major floods since 1860.
Major floods were defined as those events which caused extensive flooding within 50 kilometres of the coast, or inundation that extended 20 kilometres along the coast, with at least two catchment areas involved.
As the chart below shows, the frequency of such events has roughly doubled to two a year over the past 150 years, with about half the increase since the end of the 19th century.
"There is a statistically significant increasing trend in major flood frequency over the full period," the authors wrote in their paper.
The range was also widespread, with "the overwhelming majority of sites in the study region [showing] increasing trends", including all but one of the sites closest to the coast.
The majority of the sites also revealed that the largest amount of daily rain received each year was increasing.
The researchers relied on rainfall and stream-flow data and also local newspaper reports to compile what they said was the most complete record of the region over time.
They attributed the trend to natural climate variability and "possibly" from human-induced climate change, adding that the anthropogenic influence was expected to be greater on the more extreme events.
Further research, though, would be needed to determine the extent of the human influence, the paper noted.
SOURCE
Go to List of John Ray's shorter articles
Go to John Ray's Main academic menu
Go to Menu of longer writings
Go to John Ray's basic home page
Go to John Ray's pictorial Home Page
Go to Selected pictures from John Ray's blogs
