January 16, 2020

The Climate Crisis Is Now Detectable in Every Single Day of Weather Across The Planet

They obviously THINK they can detect it but logically they cannot. In my studies of analytical philosophy in my student days one of the topics I took an interest in was the nature of causality.  I even had a well-received paper on the topic published in an academic journal.

And the most respected statement on the nature of cause was by David Hume, who said that "constant conjunction" was the whole of causality.  Note that word "constant".  If X causes Y then ALL instances of X will be followed by Y.  So you have to have a setup where you can examine whether all instances of X precede Y.

But that does not remotely happen in climate studies.  The presumed cause -- increased CO2 levels -- is NOT always followed by warming.  There is even doubt whether the two are correlated at all.  So the claim below that CO2 levels CAUSE various instances of weather is simply false.  There is no constant conjunction between the two.

It can reasonably be claimed that weather is caused by many things -- which obscures the causal relationship, but there should be observed constant conjunction once you allow for all other influences.  But Warmists never to my knowledge even attempt that analysis.  Until they do there is simply no observed constant conjunction and hence no known causal relationship between any weather event and CO2 levels


The climate changes we humans have inflicted on the planet are now so deeply embedded, they are showing up in our daily weather.

Researchers from Switzerland and Norway now claim to have detected the "fingerprint" of climate change in every single day of weather in the global record since 2012.

The distinction between climate and weather is one that scientists have been hammering on about for years. And while the two are closely intertwined, they are generally considered distinct, with weather referring to short-term conditions and climate referring to longer trends.

Swiss climate scientist Reto Knutti told The Washington Post he's not sure the difference is so distinct anymore. "Weather is climate change if you look over the whole globe," he argues.

That means weather on a local scale still doesn't show a climate change signal. But if you roll these regions out into a global perspective, the variations in temperature and humidity do hold the stamp of humanity. And they are clearly distinguishable from what would happen naturally.

So, some regions of the world can still get really cold - they can even break temperature records - but if it's simultaneously warmer than average in other parts of the world, it won't impact the overall climate trend.

Using machine learning along with climate models and data, Knutti and his colleagues found daily mean weather values from 1951 to 1980 barely matched up with those from 2009 to 2018.

Examining yearly data, the authors noticed the stamp of climate change on global weather went back to 1999. And from 2012, it could be seen every single day. And the signal of climate change is now so big it's greater than global daily weather variability.

"Weather at the global level carries important information about climate," explains Knutti. "This information could, for example, be used for further studies that quantify changes in the probability of extreme weather events, such as regional cold spells."

In recent years, scientists have detected stronger links between global warming and changing weather patterns, and while it's difficult to blame any one storm on climate change, the overall pattern for heat waves, droughts and storms is clear.

The new findings suggest climate change is more deeply rooted than we thought, but if we can figure out how to link long-term trends with short-term weather events, it could help us prepare for the worst.

"This gives rise to new opportunities for the communication of regional weather events against the backdrop of global warming," says Knutti.

SOURCE